This has got to be one of the most open Caulfield Cups I have seen in a long while. I think I’ve narrowed it down enough to get us a decent return so let’s have a crack.
So my outlay alone for this race is going to be $500 so we need to be smart about this. For most punters this will be one of our heaviest betting days of the year. Lucky I’ve come up with a solution!!
On Wednesday I gave you the link for Crownbet’s free no deposit $50. If you’ve used it already use your husband or wives name to sign up so you can turn that $50 into something decent! Now we can also deposit $400 to get $1000 once you’ve already signed up just make the $400 deposit and you will be ready to go for the big day!!
Protectionist – Simply has not come up for Kris Lees at all. Might be the tracks, or just living conditions in Australia but cannot have him here.
Snow Sky – Snow Sky has good form over the 2400m over in England in the video below you see him beating home Hartnell who has done well since coming to Australia. That race was a year ago but he has won over the 2400m since then. Doesn’t seem to mind the hard tracks and has drawn very well. $11 seems a good price, one of the top chances.
Fame Game – Out of the two Japanese horses this is their best chance to win it. Hokko Brave hasn’t won in a long time and the last times they raced Fame Game has his measure. While I don’t think the trainers will want to risk a big penalty going toward the Melbourne Cup if they are win a winning spot hard to see them hold the horse back. Fame Game does look more suited to the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup, he has a blistering turn of foot and has won over 2500m before. In the video below he comes withing half a length of Gold Ship one of the best horses in the world in the Tenno Sho one of the best races in the world. Look for him flashing down the outside.(race is over 3200m) $10 is a very backable price.
Our Ivanhowe – Did lose to Let’s Make ADeal last start but was carrying 60kg. He drops 4kgs on that last race so he will definitely be better but how much better. He got home OK under the big weight and only a few starts ago ran 6th in the 5 million dollar Japan Cup. I can’t see him beating every one home but $7.30 to run a place is very enticing
Hokko Brave – Looks past his prime. If you want to back one of the Japanese go with Fame Game.
Mongolian Khan – The favourite after a great run in the Caulfield Stakes. With such an open race and a lot of great horses there is no chance at all I will be jumping into a $4.2 favourite. You have to be an absolute star to win this short and Mongolian Khan is not that. Throw him in your exotics but he has no value at all,
Trip To Paris – Needs further than the 2400m. If you were thinking of backing him., cross your fingers that the first emergency Quest For More gets a run instead. Hasn’t missed a place over the 2400 and Tommy Berry gets off to ride. Not to mention he’s currently $67
Who Shot The Barman – Another horse who will be better suited in the Melbourne Cup
Grand Marshall – Also needs the Melbourne Cup
Royal Descent – Such a tough girl was actually favourite for this race 2 years ago where she ran a good 1.8L fifth. Her only other run at the 2400m she smashed the girls in the ATC Oaks by ten lengths although that was on a heavy track. Royal Descent has such a knack to run a place and not get the win though which is no good and Chris Waller had her wound up early I feel like that might have been her ceiling last run where she was only just beaten in the Turnbull. The fact that she drew the widest barrier is no help at all either. She is a good one for the exotics but I won’t be having a win bet on her.
Volkstok’n’barrel – Has battled Mongolian Khan twice over 2400m and lost both times. Didn’t do well enough in the Turnbull for me to have here.
Hauraki – Placed behind Mongolian Khan in the derby over 2400m in the Autumn. Last start was great against Complacent as they fought out a tight finish with Complacent getting the bob. I really loved the way he fought to the line last start, he ran very fast late sectionals but probably felt the pinch late being 3rd up. Going into this fourth up and with a firm track he will be cherry ripe. James Mcdonald I believe to be one of the top two jockeys in the country the other being Hugh Bowman. He should be able to get him to settle from barrier 14. He gets back anyway so the barrier shouldn’t be to much of a problem. 4YO gelding with only 53kg he profiles very well for this race and he is my tip to win the Caufield Cup.
Lucia Valentina – She isn’t the same horse she was last spring and the good track will do her no help either. Can’t have her here.
Rising Romance – She is a tough one, we know she will get the trip she ran a bloody place last year. She was very flat last start though, was wide without cover most of the way probably entitiled to weaken out of it a little, but she did more than that. Start before that though she nearly beat Fawkner in the Makbye Diva. While I won’t be on her she’s definetly one for exotics.
Magicool – No chance here.
Gust Of Wind – Never saw daylight at all in the Turnbull, the whole straight was behind a wall of horses. Has a great win over Winx at 2400m in the Autumn obviously faces a lot tougher here. $4.90 the place is not a bad offer if you like her, i’ll definetly have her in my exotics. Has drawn inside Hauraki and should be able to follow him into the race.
Set Square – In with a great shot here, has form over the distance and she was flying home last start. 51kg will help her out. Hasn’t won since last spring but this could be her shot. Will be playing her in my exotics.
Magnapal – Look on
If Any Emergencies get a start I would be most keen on Quest For More and Complacement.
How I am going to play this race! I’m going to have $500 on the race, you adjust your bet sizes accordingly.
Snow Sky $11 – $91 stake
Fame Game $11 – $91 stake
Hauraki $8.50 – $117 stake
If one of these horses win you will make roughly a $700 Profit
Boxed Quinella – 2,3,6,12,16 – $50 = 500%
Trifecta – 2,3,6,12,16/2,3,6,12,16/2,3,4,6,10,12,16,17 – $50 = 42%
First Four – 2,3,6,12,16/2,3,6,12,16/2,3,4,6,10,12,16,17/ 2,3,4,6,10,12,14,16,17 – $100 = 17%