Gotta love Friday night group one racing. Below is my full preview and my $500 staking plan for the race! Need some money for the massive group one racing this weekend? I’ve got you covered
This is going to be exciting. Last year saw a blanket finish and with this field it wouldn’t surprise me if it happened again! Here’s last year’s replay ( Excuse the terrible quality, was the only copy on youtube).
This is my speed map for the race. I think the Buff will cross and lead with Srikandi working to sit one back on the outside. Rebel Dane will push up to be two back on the rail or might even go more forward to sit outside Tiger Tees. The best spots in the race go to Srikandi and Rebel Dane, although I don’t think Buffering will be under massive pressure.
Now let’s look at the runners for this year’s renewal
Buffering – The QLD warhorse. Came back with a stylish group 1 win in the Moir. He won the Moir last year as well before 7th in the Manikato but we just saw how close a 7th that was. So how will he go this year? The thing I love about the buff is that he’s pretty much bombproof. Barrier 7 won’t be that big of a deal and he should be able to dig up and find a spot close to the lead. While there will be pace I doubt they will go as crazy this year, this should give the Buff enough of a chance to run them off their feet. You have to remember the Darley Classic last year that stamped our sprinters as the best in the world. Buffering led with Lanken Rupee the whole way down the wide flemington straight and only three horses made it past him, Lanken Rupee, Chautauqua and Terravista. Now around the tight turning Moonee Valley course, Lanken Rupee is out and Chautauqua and Terravista has drawn barriers two and one respectively. Any price above $6 is overs for Buffering. He’s firmed from $10 into $8-$7.50 with most bookies a price I find definitely worth a bet.
Chautauqua – Two impressive wins on the trot for the 5 year old gelding out of Encosta De Lago. Two starts back we saw Chautauqa easily pick them up over 1000m at the Valley, that was his first start there. I doubt they will get so far back this time. He’s gotten in trouble before getting to far back and leaving his run to late. . I agree Chautauqua is a deserved favourite but I won’t be backing him at anything less than $2.90 from that draw.
Terravista – He probably didn’t win the way you wanted to see him win on Saturday. His Autumn prep was awful as well.. Had to go wide in this race last year and that hurt him he then went on to win the Darley Classic next start. Drawing barrier two was no help, so he has got a few things going against him, in saying that he is a group one winning star and you are getting $5.50 to see if he is back to his best.
Rebel Dane – Drew the terrible barrier one draw last year and it hurt him as he came home very well but couldn’t quite squeeze past Lanken Rupee. That’s why I’m worried about the two favourites this year. Back to Rebel Dane though, in this year’s revival he has drawn barrier 4. I can see him sitting maybe 3 pairs back on the outside, which is where the best place to be probably is. Don’t let his Moonee Valley stats fool you, he has only raced here for four group ones, beaten less than a length in all of them besides the William Reid. This year he has had throat surgery which reportedly has him back to his best. My best value shot without a doubt. I have a soft spot for this horse and would love to see him get another Group 1.
Tiger Tees – Without a wet track I don’t give him a chance.
Fast n Rocking – Such an incosistent horse. Was backed big time during the week before his last win but I don’t see any of the horses he beat doing well here. Could be one for fourth place but that’s about it.
Rich Enuff – Unfortunately hasn’t come back from the break with the same form it had as a three year old which is such a shame I really looked forward to seeing what he had to offer. I’m worried the Coolmore took it out of him. Hopefully Ken Keys can figure out a way to turn his fortunes around but it won’t be before Friday night.
Srikandi – I am very keen on seeing her race. Ciaron Maher is in great form. Srikandi’s last trial she ran 2nd to a horse who went out and beat Super One. Her price has drifted out to around $7 which is great each way odds, considering there isn’t that much pace drawn inside her. I don’t think they will want to lead on her if they let Buffering and Rich Enuff go Kerrin Mcevoy should be able to get the box seat easy enough. $7 is a great each way price to jump into.
Griante – Come home well last start and boast a third in a Moonee Valley 1200m group one. If the field wasn’t so good would be a place chance, but can’t have it here.
Alpha Miss – Beat home a not 100% Lanken Rupee last time out. Did trial alright before that and hasn’t finished outside the top two second up. I just can’t see her beating this field home maybe a 3rd or 4th chace but thats it.
My $500 Layout ( Click link to be taken to race page on Ladbrokes, also get $700 first deposit matched there)
Buffering $7.5 – $71 Win
Terravista $5.5 – $97 Win
Rebel Dane $11 – $48 Win
Srikandi $6.5 – $82 Win
If one of those get up will get about $535 back
1,2,4,8 boxed quinella $60 = 10x
2/1,3,4,8/1,3,4,8 Trifecta $40 = 3.33x
2,3,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,8,10/1,,3,4,5,8,9,10 First Four $100 = 56%