2015 C.F.Orr Stakes Winner Dissident
First of all I would like to apoligise for not getting my tips sent out as I had some personal issues arise that I needed to attend to. Hopefully though you read my C.F. Orr Stakes preview and managed to get on Suavito. I had a big go at it on Betfair and was very pleased with the results. The first group one of the year and get a good bet on at 17s is a great start to the betting year.
For all those who took the Sportsbet loophole offer I hope you got the bonus but it now seems they have been alerted to the loophole and have stopped giving the bonuses out on the offer, sometimes even stating that the offer is not there’s. Classic bookie bullshit though considering the URL clearly states that is from Sportsbets website.
Friday night at the Valley saw any followers finish with a 0.5 unit profit. Hoplites was the only winner running third but I did recommend at 3 unit bet to place at $4.10 just making up for the 11.5 units wagered for the night. A pretty standard night at the Valley really, this being the third week in a row finishing in profit at the Valley friday night meeting albeit a small one on this occasion.
Saturday really saw the return of great racing and you get the feel that the Autumn Carnival is in full swing now. Racing at Caulfield held most of the excitement for the day and that was reflected with most of the volume for betting coming from Caulfield although the Apollo stakes was the most wagered on race in the Country for the day, which is a little expected with Winx returning and punters wanting to sit both sides of the fence on her.
Suavito had to be one of the best runs of the day, produced to win a Group One first up off a 10 month injury enforced lay off is outstanding. Luke Currie did a great job in the run sitting just where I mapped him to right behind the leaders and easily finding the gap when the other horses started to struggle for air, it was a great performance from jockey, trainer and most importantly horse. There were other good runs aswell though with the obvious being Lucky Hussler who followed Suavito through but only really got out when the race was over. I think one of the biggest runs and horses to follow throughout the Carnival will be Turn Me Loose. He was 1st up which as I stated in the Preview he doesn’t have a good effort with and he was at too short a trip. He still managed to get across and lead well and stick on for fourth, what was most encouraging was the fact that he produced his best 1st up figures to date and stepping up to the mile next should produce a win if he follows his form historically.
In the Blue Diamond preview for the Fillies Samara Dancer was well backed from around $14 into $4.40 and saluted and the eye catcher being Concealer who ran on from the back, both horses have now moved to $8.50 for the Blue Diamond in a fortnight’s time. The Colts and Geldings edition of the race saw a good duel between Flying Artie and Star Turn. Mick Price had previously said in Interviews he believed that Flying Artie might run out a stronger 1200m then Extreme Choice because he is a big muscular colt. He isn’t the only one who believes that with Damian Oliver who had first choice over which horse he rode in the BD choosing Flying Artie. This saw his price firm to $3.80 while Extreme Choice maintains favoritism at $2.70. It will be a great race in two weeks time and interesting to see after that if the winner will be able to challenge Capitalist in the Golden Slipper.
All eyes were on Winx in the Apollo Stakes to see how she would return after that devastating Cox Plate win and she didn’t disappoint anyone. Chris Waller horses are never fully wound up first up as you would expect with a horse who has much bigger fish to fry than this but as a testament to this horse with so much improvement to come she still won quite easily. I think there was a lot to like about her win aswell, while yes she drew barrier one and was able to sit closer to the speed I think there was a lot more downside to drawing barrier one. The fence was not the place to be at all and most winners on the day drew outside gates. The fact is there have been fast lanes on the middle of the track the last few meetings and Saturday was no different, the heavy winds as well also favored horses ridden wider with cover. Her win was good and it’ll be hard to oppose her in the Chipping Norton and when she gets to the Queen Elizabeth good luck to punters to find something to beat her there as well.