Last week the first Group One of the year was run at Caulfield and my preview picked out Suavito as a bet at $17. This time I’m going to be previewing the Lightning Stakes and hopefully we can grab the winner here too.
Flemingtons first group one of the year is going to be spectacular, Exosphere is the wonder colt with tremendous upside but he has to take on the older group one sprinters first in Terravista, Chataqua and Delectation then there is also Japonisme who beat him in the Coolmore.
I exepect Japonisme, Va Pensiero and Kinglike to go forward here, the pace won’t be too hectic though. The first four in the market will then get across and bunch behind these three. A not to remember when going through this or your own form while these horses all have form around each other already it will probably pay to forget for the most part or take into consideration the extreme bias’ that plagued the Flemington track the week of the Darley and Coolmore. In case you forgot what I mean here are the replays, you can see the middle of the track was absolute dog shit.
Chautauqua: Still the highest ranked sprinter in the world, 6:4-2-0 first up and only one run at the 1000m for a devestating win in a G2 at the Valley when resuming last prep. He’s a hard horse to fault, I think he win the Darley Classic last prep if he doesn’t go so far too the middle of the track. 6: 3-3-0 down the Flemington straight. Could be vunrable if he let’s them get to far ahead here, probably won’t be fully wound up but special horse. Does have experience on his side aswell.
Terravista: Another star sprinter but has only beat Chaut one time out of the 6 or so times they have met. Has a good fresh record but I’d rather be on Chaut over him. Has been trialling well though.
Delectation: Won the Darley last time out but like I said probably had everything that could go right fall into place in that race. No knock on the horse though still had to be extremeley good to win that, was tremendously unlucky two starts before that against Chaut, running 2nd after having no luck at all. I’d prefer to be on him closer to the Newmarket, it’s not like Waller to have his horses firing first up when there are bigger races in mind.
Va Pensiero: There are definitely a lot worse $91 shots out there, I definitely think this price is big overs. A horse who has struggled with injury but shown tremendous potential. Has had two trials for a win and a second both in very good fashion, the first of those trials actually beat Delectation and Craftiness home. Definetly has a shot in this if can kick away at the right time while the others aren’t ready. By no means a sure thing but a fiver on her at $91 isn’t a bad bet at all!
Exosphere: The star! On the 3rd of October he raced in the Roman Consul beating Japonisme a few races later in the day Terravista also raced over the 1200m. Exosphere had a faster time in a higher rating race. Absolutely dominated in Sydney, winning exceptionally well, is 5 wins from 8 starts with very genuine excuses for each one of those losses. Yes his quote is starting to get very short considering he flopped down the straight last time but I have a feeling this horse is a special one.
Japonisme: Has been walloped by Exosphere every time they have met besides the one that counted down the straight for the Coolmore. Like I’ve said before it might be better off forgetting that race ever happened, and he’d probably like the sting out of the ground, but you never know might be able to sneak away here before the swoopers get stuck right into it. Good sign aswell that Waller says he has him rock hard fit and if the two big guns are off this is the horse to get them.
Kinglike: Was very impressive down the straight in the Danehill but not at this lot’s level.
Suggested Bets: Exosphere 7 Units
Japonisme 1.5 Units