This year’s Oakleigh Plate is one of three group one races being run at Caulfield on Saturday, the other two being the Futurity and the Blue Diamond. It is a 500k handicap over 1100m and is considered one of the best handicap sprints of the carnival.
Below are the last 12 winners and relative statistics (Age, weight carried, barrier and starting price).
- 2015 SHAMAL WIND 6M 54kg (15) $11
- 2014 LANKAN RUPEE 4G 56kg (7) $4
- 2013 MRS ONASSIS 5m 52.5kg (11) $16
- 2012 WOORIM 6g 55.5kg (8) $21
- 2011 EAGLE FALLS 5g 57kg (9) $21
- 2010 STARSPANGLEDBANNER 3c 52kg (6)
- 2009 SWISS ACE 4g 54kg (18) $31
- 2008 WEEKEND HUSSLER 3g 53kg (10) $2.10
- 2007 UNDUE 5g 57kg (14) $15
- 2006 SNITZEL 3c 51.5kg (4) $11
- 2005 FASTNET ROCK 3c 57kg (6)$2
- 2004 REACTIVE 5m 52kg (1) $16
1. 12 of last 12 winners have first or second up when winning this. Not overly important as most runners are coming back into the spring through this race rather than take on the stars in the Lightening
2. 10/12 aged between 3 & 5 years
3. No horse has carried more than 57kg to win in this period, but 5 have carried 55.5kg-57kg
4. 8/12 winners have drawn barrier 7 or wider. I think this goes to show that usually there’s a solid place in the Oakleigh and it’s advantageous to be drawn a little wider and be a get back and run on horse.
6. Average winning price is very high, even with two odds on pops, your more likely to have horses winning at double figure odds.
Like I said in the facts, the Oakleigh is usually run at a decent clip and is very advantageous to horses who can sit back with a turn of foot. Lanken Rupee has probably sat the closest in the run out of the last few years of winners and he was still a few pairs back. He was of course in such good form then he went on to win the Newmarket and TJ Smith. It is obviously hard to map a race like this then there is also emergencies and barrier changes to come because of this but at the moment this is how I have it mapped.
- Flamberge – Too much weight
2. Dothraki – Will be running on alright but too much weight.
3. Fast ‘N’ Rocking – Not a good enough fresh runner and too much weight.
4. Smokin Joey – Not a good enough fresh runner and too much weight.
5. Eclair Choice – Does tend to get better second up, knuckled the start against Heatherly last rest not that he would have gotten close to her anyway. With some improvement can definitely give this a shake, his spring runs last prep were very good.
6. Lord Of The Sky – He has been such an up and down horse, had breathing issues but once they were cleared up seemed like he was going to live up to his potential. Ran 2nd in the T.J Smith beating Terravista and was very close to them in the Newmarket when 4th. The wide gate for a horse who runs best when leading is such a disadvantage and for this reason I am not too keen on him. It will be interesting to see how he goes though and could be one to watch going forward.
7. Bounding – Last prep was sensational 1st up, ran like a world beater and looks to have come back in great form. Her trials have been absolutely outstanding and I have been waiting a while for her to resume. She drew well in barrier 8 gets good weight relief and I think she will be one of the top picks for this. Her fresh record is 6:4-2-0 she will be tough to beat come Saturday.
8. Fell Swoop – The Canberra Rocket. Such a good horse who is going to be going places, I worry though that in barrier 5 he will push more forward then will feel comfortable with to stop the horses drawing wide from crossing him. He is definitely a chance here but I would want decent odds until he really proves himself.
9. Gregers – Drawing barrier 1 he will go forward and I highly doubt he will have the stamina to just about lead and win this.
10. Kuro – Last run was hampered and the start and never really got into it so forgive run. Last prep 2nd up was at 1100m at Caulfield and he was very strong to the line if he wasn’t laying in all over the place he would’ve won. Definetly in with a shot in this.
11. The Quarterback – If this was Flemington I’d be all over him like a rash. Was very strong late last start but I think he is more suited to that long wide straight at Flemington because he doesn’t have the greatest tactical speed. He will be competitive here but I don’t have him winning.
12. Atmospherical – Think she will be outclassed here
13. Griante – Outclassed here
14. Pittsburgh Flyer – With natural improvement on her fresh runs in previous preps she goes right near the top of the market. Has the perfect profile to win this kind of race and drew a great barrier. One to watch out for.
15. Vealey – Very promising type who unfortunately drew very wide, that’s going to hurt her chance s a lot as she likes to be right near the pace.
16. Heatherly – She is flying at the moment so much talent. In 2014 Lanken Rupee won the Rubiton in very similar fashion before coming out and winning this race and Heatherly gave them a spanking last start. I’ve got two knocks on her though, she is very far into her prep and she has to win off a sit. If she leads I’m not sure she will hold them off so far into her prep. If they can get her to settle just one or two off the leading pair she will be hard to stop. She deserves to be favourite but I’m just not 100% convinced she can lead all the way.
17. Headwater – The once Golden Slipper favourite looks to have come back the horse everyone thought he would be . Great run 1st up and now that he has learnt to settle barrier 18 shouldn’t pose the biggest issue and this horse will be one of my top chances.
18. Keen Array – Would have preferred she drew a little wider but she is a freaking gun. Very keen to follow her again, if she doesn’t win this she will still be winning races this prep. Drawn well enough and posses the right combination of weight and tactical speed to go well here.
19. Reldas- Will be outclassed here.
20. Swinging Arms – Will be outclassed here.
21. Lightly raced Filly, will need a few chances to drop out but if she gets a run not the worse choice out there.
My Top Selections
- Pittsburgh Flyer
- Fell Swoop