This Saturday we have the 3.5 Million Longines Golden Slipper for two year olds at set weight conditions. The Melbourne Blue Diamond quinella heads the market, Capatilist the early favourite has drifted since losing last start to Kiss and Make Up who has been the big firmer. Below I have my thoughts on each runner, my assessed odds, and the speed map.
Extreme Choice drew well here and will push forward and lead, Capatilist who drew barrier 2 will also drive forward and sit behind him. Kiss and Make Up, Good Standing and Scarlet Rain will drive across with one of them most likely Scarlet Rain probably getting caught wide. Flying Artie will sit more forward but I think he will still let one or two most likely Star Turn or French Fern cross him with Astern likely to get caught wide. Defcon, Calliope and Yankee Rose will all have to make their moves from worse than mid-field if they want to win. The barrier gods have been good to most of the top chances in the race and this should make for a very exciting renewal of the Golden Slipper.
1. Extreme Choice – Winner of the Blue Diamond, his times have all been outstanding. Mick Price has said both him and Flying Artie have worked extremely well since arriving at Sydney. He has already won the Sydney way of going when he won his first race start at Randwick. Will lead the race and kick away coming around the home turn but he will need to lift on his Blue Diamond effort when Flying Artie comes for him around the 200m mark. The opposition will be a lot tougher here than the Blue Diamond but it is hard to fault this horse. I would like his price to get out a little before I jump in, $3 seems just a touch to short to be backing him to peak again.
2. Flying Artie – Finally this horse draws a good gate, actually inside stablemate Extreme Choice as well. His effort in the Blue Diamond was extraordinary after getting back from barrier 17 coming to the turn gets speared about 5 wide still manages to over come and run down Extreme Choice to within two lengths. Had better closing sectionals than Extreme Choice in the run and will now sit closer to him. From the better draw he will be very hard to hold out. His only knock is he hasn’t raced the Sydney way of going but jockey Damien Oliver said he went well in track work on Tuesday and should benefit and improve coming into the slipper, This horse could be something special going forward.
3. Defcon – Drifted significantly when racing against Astern before looming to win when fitness gave out. Then went to the Black Opal at Canberra and won with a touch of class. He started the $1.90 fav at Canberra got well back and stormed home to easily win. This is obviously a massive step up in class and I do not like back markers in Golden Slippers. It’d be a huge ask to run down the likes of Flying Artie and Extreme Choice.
4. Kiss And Make Up – You might remember I sent him out as a tip before his first up win on the back of some excellent trials. I was absolutely gutted I didn’t back him against Capatilst at $23 because I thought Kiss And Make Up was a horse to follow. First up he beat Detective who placed again at Flemington on the weekend then last start was getting away from Capitalist and the talented Weatherly, this was after making them work early on. Gai does have a great slipper record and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this horse do very well. Definetly a place chance.
5. Astern – This horse for me comes in as one of the biggest unknowns. It hasn’t raced since the 20th of February where he defeated Defcon and Mount Panorama. The thing about that win though was that he got an easy run and controlled the tempo, Defcon had to sit three wide the whole way and Mount Panorama was way back. It’s hard to say what we know about this horse since he hasn’t been tested yet, we can then add to that the break between runs and he comes into this with a lot of question marks. He did trial the other day and won impressively but against C grade opposition. Drew the widest barrier but J Mac got Mossfun home from a similar draw two years ago in the Slipper so that helps. Tough ask for him to win but there could be some upside about him.
6. Star Turn – Didn’t get a great run in the Diamond and made contact rounding the turn that caused Flying Artie to go so wide so bit of a forgive run for Star Turn. Before that he was very impressive when just being edged out by Flying Artie. This horse is actually a Sydney horse who went to Melbourne for the diamond and his two Sydney runs were impressive. He trialled recently and cruised up the inside for victory. He should be able to get across to sit somewhere midfield, the pace from the inside barriers won’t be as hectic this time so he should get a chance to slot in one or two off the fence. Can’t turn the tables on the leading two but could run a third or fourth at odds.
7. Capitalist – The magic millions and early favourite for the Slipper has drifted very heavily since losing last start to Kiss And Make Up. After jumping he was significantly over racing and throwing his head around. I’m going to forgive his run based on that, he is still a good horse and has probably been wound out a lot more because of the expectation from the punters. In the end his early form was out of a lot of restricted races where the opposition wasn’t as strong and his odds didn’t deserve to be so low. He still has it in him to run good sectionals and I think he is still well in this race if the Snowdens have got him right.
8. Good Standing – This horse looks a top chance to get up on Saturday, definitely the best at odds in my opinion. He has only had two starts, first he was nabbed on the line by the talented Yankee Rose after being made to do all the work then last start he kicked away from Lion Hearted and Souchez who raced well on Saturday. Barrier 10 with Hugh Bowman on board is perfect for this horse he will be able to settle one or two pairs back on the outside and should be able to kick in the right lane. Will be the best chance of horses coming from behind to win this race.
9. Telperion – Got to far back last time for no reason so they have added blinkers to get him to focus and go forward more. Interesting though is that James Mcdonald has chosen to stick with Astern but blinkers first time you’ve got to see him improve. His trial with the blinkers on was outstanding really lengthening in the straight. I expect him to improve but not enough to win this.
10. French Fern – Wide no cover in the Reisling but kicked away strongly to win. It’s fair to say the Fillies aren’t as strong as the colts this time round and I really don’t like the form out of the Reisling. Staying away from any of those runners.
11. Scarlet Rain – Last start burned across from out wide to get a soft lead before kicking away well in the straight to win. There will be a stronger pace here and I really can’t see her coming across from 16 and being able to kick away.
12. Calliope – Got a great ride from James Mcdonald last time before sprinting well to just cling on from promising filly Omei Sword. Between her and Yankee Rose they look the best of the fillies but on her last run she would have to improve a couple of lengths to win this.
13. Yankee Rose – She looks incredibly promising her form through Good Standing is great. First up since november though in the Golden Slipper, for her to win would be an absolutely incredible training performance and there is no way I can come into her first up in a Slipper. Keep an eye on her though going forward.
14. Sweet Sherry – Don’t see her anywhere near this.
15. Honesty Prevails – After her first run looked very talented but dissapointed in the Reisling. Like i said earlier I don’t think the Reisling is the right form for this race.
16. Quick Feet – Not the right form line for this.
17. Moqueen – Still a maiden and better of finding an easier race than heading here.
Kiss And Make Up
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