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The Doncaster Preview

 

The prestigious 3 million dollar Randwick Mile is back and this looks to be a strong affair. Not a capacity field this year unfortunately but last year’s winner Kermadec is back, the mighty mare Winx and the two Victorians Turn Me Loose and Bow Creek this is set to be a cracker of a race. The G1 Handicap review is below and if you want the full market Subscribe to the Free Email List and it will be sent out Saturday Morning.

The Runners

Kermadec – Last years Doncaster winner as a 3yo. Comes back now at 4 this time having to carry 57kgs will be a big ask to turn the tables on Winx, yes he gets a weight swing on her this time but still has to carry 57. Was strong in the George Ryder over the 1500m went with Winx for 50m but couldn’t sustain her effort. Will be strong in this but might be weighted to highly to win.

Turn Me Loose – Undefeated after 4 starts at the mile this distance is his go, last start he over raced and threw his head around for most of the way. If he doesn’t do that he will be hard to go past. This horse is tremendously talented. It all depends how he turns up on Saturday though, if he bounces back from his last start will be right up there.

Winx – She is still doing a few things wrong in the mounting yard and not looking fully on the task. Was surprised to see her drift out as far as she did on Saturday with top fluc being around $1.90-$2. Sat three wide most of the trip and was to classy. When she leveled up to them Kermadec went with her for about 50m before she pulled away and was eased down to a comfortable win. I’m not liking the way she is doing things and the fact she has been drifting out is a negative in saying that she has still been too good. There will be a bit more pace in this race then her last few so thinking she will go back a little more and unleash that trademark sprint. It is a handicap and this time she meets the boys at the top of the weights at level heading. I think she will be good enough to win this but if there’s a chance for her to be beaten it is this race because I can’t see anything beating her next start over the 2000m.

Stratum Star – Ran to the 1000m very quickly last start and after that was a little gassed so did well to only go down by a length or so. From barrier 2 will have to roll forward again I’d say. Won’t have the turn of foot to win this but there has been worse 50-1 shots go around before.

Bow Creek – This horse has beat the handicapper. Meets Winx and Top rated horses like Kermadec multiple Kilograms better than he would at level weights. Started favourite in the Australian Cup but missed the jump and because Mourinho came up race turned into a sit and sprint not suiting bow creek at all. He maps perfectly for this, one of the only horses I believe has the turn of foot to get past Winx. Also worth noting he is following the go to 2000m then drop back to the mile for his grand final which is a favourite program for Chris Waller. Overs here and definitely worthy a bet.

First Seal – I can’t find where she makes enough improvement to get past Winx and Kermadec here, yes she drops to 53kg but I still don’t think that gives her enough upside to rate her higher than Winx an Kermadec. An exotic option but can’t have her winning. Barrier 1 horrible draw for her as well.

Volkstok’n’barrell – Coming here of three runs in New Zealand which were very good including two wins in a row at G1 level. Another horse going from the 2000m back to the mile for the grand final. Maps well, to come over the top of them. Not a top chance but looks a touch of overs and could be one for a place at decent odds.

Good Project – Hasn’t had a good prep, knuckled last start and ended up lame in near fore. Is a G1 winner of the mile at Ascot but at this level against this opposition need to be at your best to win and cannot say he is.

Ecuador – Will ensure a strong pace but will not be able to keep the swoopers at bay.

Happy Clapper – Had an early bet on him for this race. Gets in with 50.5kg has been racing very well this prep good sectionals behind good horses and now gets out to the mile where he has been successful in the past but also gets a big weight swing on the seasoned horses. Barrier 8 is perfect and he will probably go forward a little more than usual with the low weight. Brenton Avdulla is a gun and there is a lot of positives for this horse. Worth a bet for sure.

Azkedellia – Always flying home and just missing, I have a big opinion of this horse but would much rather she had won at a mile before getting here. I don’t think the Coolmore was overly strong this year. She gets in with 50kg but which is 7kg off Winx but not much off horses like Happy Clapper and Bow Creek. She will probably be coming home hard but not weighted well enough for mine.

He Or She – Loves the mile and was strong beating home United States last start who is airborne at the moment. Looked terrific flashing home in the G1 Emirates over the spring. This is obviously a step up  but with only 50kg light weight place chance.

Rudy – Can’t see him being competitive here.

Aomen – Hasn’t run a place in last ten starts and won’t do it here.

Vergara – Unplaced over the mile and won’t change that here.

Top Picks

  1. Bow Creek
  2. Winx
  3. Happy Clapper

 

 

 

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